Resistance working better than supports in bear market?

Today the Asian and European markets felt stiff resistance around 20 days SMA. For nifty there was a cluster of resistance above 2780. Though bulls tried to break the barriers of resistance but the effort was not enough. From 1.30 pm bears raided heavily and there was an unidirectional fall. No support worked except some intra day short covering within last 15 minutes. For the time being novice should keep away from trading. Can keep an eye and learn how suddenly there can be a free fall, thus HOW IMPORTANT IS STOP LOSS.

Now the resistance have shifted lower.

2759 – 20 DAY WMA

2822 – 20 DAY SMA

2828 – 20 DAY TMA

2830 – 20 DAY EMA

2863 -61.8% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241

3007 -76.4% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241

For coming days I am of the opinion that the markets will move side ways waiting for the break out upside or downside. Higher probability is of downside ( I hope I am wrong).

Just keep an eye on this before palcing an order.

The relationship between the prevailing price trend and open interest in futures.

Price Open Interest Interpretation
Rising Rising Stock is Strong
Rising Falling Stock is Weakening
Falling Rising Stock is Weak
Falling Falling Market is Strengthening

Forth comming hurdles for NIFTY.

The resistance levels have come down to lower levels. There can be two things.
(Do baaten ho sakti hei)

• As the resistance levels are very low and closer, it can hinder the up move and push the market down.
  
• As the resistance levels are very low and closer, if able to cross it and stay above it convincingly, then these levels can become support levels, and help the market to trend upward.
  

1. 2780 -20 DAY WMA
   
2. 2827 -20 DAY SMA
3. 2824 -20 DAY EMA
4. 2863 -61.8% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241
5. 2866 -20 DAY TMA
6. 3007 -76.4% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241
7. 3110 - upper range of envelop (SMA 20 +/- 10%)
   
8. 3241 -100% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241

Bullishness will be confirmed by the positive divergence on ADX.
Till the Par.SAR are hovering above, down ward pressure will not vanish.

If all these hurdles are crossed convincingly then only we can see a good intermediate uptrend. Other wise we will be back to square one position and trade in sideways, where as the time passes, the range will be narrower. At this time wait patiently for the break out before taking any long term positional call

Bounce back due???

As mentioned on 19th Nov. 2008 post, US markets made new recent lows. Went below October lows. On Thursday it sold off quite heavily and rapidly. And a technical pull back is expected. The US market futures are too trading positively by this time. This hope gave a good bounce in Asian and European markets. It is to be seen how long does this bounce carry on. Any guess???

One can go long for short term selectively and cautiously. Take advantage of the rallies to get rid of the garbage and keep cash on hand because CASH is KING.

Comparing 27OCT08 Nifty L:2252.75 & 20NOV08 Nifty L:2502.90

INDICATORS	27-Oct-08	20-Nov-08
	Nifty L:2252.75	Nifty L:2502.90
Accumulation/Distribution	-50.9	-54.55
Aroon Oscillator (14)	-100	-71.43
Aroon Up	0	28.57
Down	100	100
Av.Directional Index +DI(14)	5.489	12.31
-DI(14)	51.51	37.03
ADX(14)	62.85	28.12
Avg True Range True range	332.6	132.1
ATR(14)	239.4	171
Bollinger Width (20,2)	1651	751.9
Chaikin Money Flow (21)	-0.2071	-0.0754
Chaikin Oscillator	-9.109	-7.668
Chaikin Volatility (10,10)	13.84	-24.95
Close Location Value	0.6325	-0.2346
CCI (20)	-221.8	-130.1
Detrended Price Oscillator(20)	-860.5	-289.2
Donchian Width (20)	1858	987.8
Ease of Movement EMV	-10754	-2133
EMV EMA (9)	-3521	-663.4
Fast Stochastic %K(5)	27.09	11.53
%D(3)	13.79	6.739
MACD12,26,9 MACD(26,12)	-351.7	-201.5
EXP(9)	-280.2	-203.1
Divergence	-71.41	1.636
Mass Index	26.76	24.68
Momentum(12)	-989.5	-490.7
Money Flow Index 14	23.09	38.42
Negative Vol. Index 20 NVI	55.53	68.65
NVI SMA (20)	62.01	75.1
On Balance Volume	-178.2	-139
Performance	-59.86	-42.18
% Price Oscillator12,26,9 PPO(26,12)	-11.41	-7.188
EMA (9)	-8.488	-6.962
Divergence	-2.921	-0.2264
%Volume Osc.2,26,9 PVO(26,12)	-5.203	-6.853
EMA (9)	-3.333	-4.71
Divergence	-1.871	-1.873
Pos Volume Index20 PVI	72.29	84.22
PVI SMA (20)	86.54	85.7
Price Volume Trend	-10.71	-5.635
Rate of Change (10)	-27.69	-14.75
RSI (14)	20.925	33.17
Slow Stochastic %K(5)	13.79	6.739
%D(3)	12.73	9.564
StochRSI (14)	14.5	38.55
TRIX (12)	0.9869	0.9917
Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28)	37.22	34.42
William’s%R	-81.66	-93.19