Bulls will party for sure. How long????

Since September we have witnessed that bears hammered down the market around 20days EMA. This is the fourth attempt by the bulls to surpass the 20days EMA. In the same way most of the premier global markets too faced stiff resistance around 20days EMA since September. Now most of them are too trading around this mark. European Markets are looking more weak than other global markets, hence we may see profit booking after the European markets open.

If we see a rhetoric gap up opening immediately we will see some hammering. But I am afraid there can be a bear trap if not able to cover shorts soon. As mentioned earlier the bollinger bands contraction indicating some volatility in coming days. If nifty does not break 2745.00, bulls will have more hopes. Gap up around 2785.00 and closing further up will be great support for the bulls. Bears should close their positions and can wait to open them for some time. There can be stiff resistance near 2900 levels.

There is no doubt that we are in the bear market, so the painkillers given by the Government will subside the pain for some time. How long, that is to be seen. But for now Bulls will have a party.

Will the making continue?

Heavy Put writing witnessed in Dec 2600 PE.

Heavy unwinding witnessed in Dec 2600 CE.

2863 - 61.8% Fib ret. of 2253 - 3241

20day EMA - 2792

Close – 2788.00

20day SMA - 2781

20day TMA -2757

20day WMA-2726

ADX bullish, MACD positive, Ultimate Oscillator bullish.

Nifty today was successful to climb up some of the weak resistances. It is to be seen how long it can sustain above it. It will be better if it can spend considerable long time, as it can help to lift up this support (earlier resistance) levels.

Warning – Fast Stochastic can turn into sell mode at any time and give a knee jerk. Par. SAR not supporting the bullishness. Bollinger Bands contracting which can throw in high volatility soon. Within last three months nifty have fallen from 20day EMA (now 2792) which is yet to be conquered. So please be careful with your longs and cautiously go short.

Bears can return with great vengeance.

Make or Break soon.

Now the situation in which we are, is such that very soon we may see a make or brake kind of situation. Today Nifty made a Doji, showing the great level of indecisiveness. If any good announcement comes out from government, then we can see a good rally, otherwise there can be significant downfall. It is now out of my imagination, that if there is a fall at what levels can this fall lead. Other wise earlier I was of the opinion that 2253 may not be tested atleast in December.
Today Technology did not lend a support other wise it would have been a different day. Laggards of previous week like Tata Steel, State Bank, DLF, Maruti, PNB staged back good recovery today. For tomorrow if the big boy Reliance stages a rally and if Nifty does not give up 2655.00 then it will be a discomfort for the Bears.

• Resistance levels.
• 2727 - 20 day WMA
• 2780 - 20 day TMA
  
• 2793 - 20 day EMA
• 2799 - 20 day SMA
• 2863 - 61.8% Fib retracement of the range 2253 - 3241

SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCES obtained by PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS FOR CNXNIFTY

WHERE PIVOT POINT is 2654.02.

	DAILY For Next Day
RESISTANCE 1	2,696.08
RESISTANCE 2	2,735.72
RESISTANCE 3	2,777.78
SUPPORT 1	2,614.38
SUPPORT 2	2,572.32
SUPPORT 3	2,532.68

LETTER TO PRIME MINISTER.

Stock exchange analysis posted in the previous post. But please give few moments to this...

I got this in my inbox.

Dear Mr. Prime minister

I am a typical mouse from Mumbai. In the local train compartment
which has capacity of 100 persons, I travel with 500 more mouse.
Mouse at least squeak but we don't even do that.

Today I heard your speech. In which you said 'NO BODY WOULD BE
SPARED'. I would like to remind you that fourteen years has passed
since serial bomb blast in Mumbai took place. Dawood was the main
conspirator. Till today he is not caught. All our bolywood actors,
our builders, our Gutka king meets him but your Government can not
catch him. Reason is simple; all your ministers are hand in glove
with him. If any attempt is made to catch him everybody will be
exposed. Your statement 'NOBODY WOULD BE SPARED' is nothing but a
cruel joke on this unfortunate people of India.

Enough is enough. As such after seeing terrorist attack carried out
by about a dozen young boys I realize that if same thing continues
days are not away when terrorist will attack by air, destroy our
nuclear reactor and there will be one more Hiroshima.

We the people are left with only one mantra. Womb to Bomb to Tomb.
You promised Mumbaikar 'Shanghai' what you have given us is Jalianwala
Baug.

Today only your home minister resigned. What took you so long to kick
out this joker? Only reason was that he was loyal to Gandhi family.
Loyalty to Gandhi family is more important than blood of innocent
people, isn't it?

I am born and bought up in Mumbai for last fifty eight years. Believe
me corruption in Maharashtra is worse than that in Bihar. Look at all
the politician, Sharad Pawar, Chagan Bhujbal, Narayan Rane, Bal
Thackray , Gopinath Munde, Raj Thackray, Vilasrao Deshmukh all are
rolling in money. Vilasrao Deshmukh is one of the worst Chief
minister I have seen. His only business is to increase the FSI every
other day, make money and send it to Delhi so Congress can fight next
election. Now the clown has found new way and will increase FSI for
fisherman so they can build concrete house right on sea shore. Next
time terrorist can comfortably live in those house , enjoy the beauty
of sea and then attack the Mumbai at their will.

Recently I had to purchase house in Mumbai. I met about two dozen
builders. Everybody wanted about 30% in black. A common person like
me knows this and with all your intelligent agency & CBI you and your
finance minister are not aware of it. Where all the black money goes?
To the underworld isn't it? Our politicians take help of these
goondas to vacate people by force. I myself was victim of it. If you
have time please come to me, I will tell you everything.

If this has been land of fools, idiots then I would not have ever
cared to write you this letter. Just see the tragedy, on one side we
are reaching moon, people are so intelligent and on other side you
politician has converted nectar into deadly poison. I am everything
Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Schedule caste, OBC, Muslim OBC, Christian
Schedule caste, Creamy Schedule caste only what I am not is INDIAN.
You politician have raped every part of mother India by your policy
of divide and rule. Some elements of society are trying to divide
Mumbai with north and south India. These elements were comfortably
hiding last week in their holes like a rat does. Their activities
month back were not less than terrorists, the only difference was no
bullet.

Take example of former president Abdul Kalam. Such a intelligent
person, such a fine human being. You politician didn't even spare
him. Your party along with opposition joined the hands, because
politician feels they are supreme and there is no place for good
person.

Dear Mr Prime minister you are one of the most intelligent person,
most learned person. Just wake up, be a real SARDAR. First and
foremost expose all selfish politician. Ask Swiss bank to give name
of all Indian account holder. Give reins of CBI to independent
agency. Let them find wolf among us There will be political upheaval
but that will better than dance of death which we are witnessing
every day. Just give us ambient where we can work honestly and
without fear. Let there be rule of law. Everything else will be taken
care of.

Choice is yours Mr. Prime Minister. Do you want to be lead by one
person or you want to lead the nation of 100 Crore people?


PLEASE READ N FORWARD AS MANY PEOPLE IN YOUR CONTACT LIST

Mixed signals for short term.

Though we are in a clear cut down trend, mid term trend is not so clear. Mixed signals are seen. I think Indian market is sniffing some possibility of some good action from the government, hence there was a reasonable pullback from the lows. But the bears were not ready to give up easily hence market was not able to close in green. The resistance levels are still coming lower and lower, hindering the way of the bulls.

• Resistance levels.
• 2742 - 20 day WMA
• 2805 - 20 day TMA
  
• 2807 - 20 day EMA
• 2818 - 20 day SMA
• 2863 - 61.8% Fib retracement of the range 2253 - 3241

ADX has turned bearish, which can bring cheers for the BEARS.
But the ultimate oscillator is showing some weak bullish strength.
An interesting fight of Bears and Bulls in coming days. If bulls are able to get the close above 2833 during this week, then it will be of great concern for the bears.

With my limited knowledge I am not able to judge the support levels.