Monday, December 1, 2008

Resistance working better than supports in bear market?

Today the Asian and European markets felt stiff resistance around 20 days SMA. For nifty there was a cluster of resistance above 2780. Though bulls tried to break the barriers of resistance but the effort was not enough. From 1.30 pm bears raided heavily and there was an unidirectional fall. No support worked except some intra day short covering within last 15 minutes. For the time being novice should keep away from trading. Can keep an eye and learn how suddenly there can be a free fall, thus HOW IMPORTANT IS STOP LOSS.

Now the resistance have shifted lower.

2759 – 20 DAY WMA

2822 – 20 DAY SMA

2828 – 20 DAY TMA

2830 – 20 DAY EMA

2863 -61.8% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241

3007 -76.4% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241

For coming days I am of the opinion that the markets will move side ways waiting for the break out upside or downside. Higher probability is of downside ( I hope I am wrong).

Just keep an eye on this before palcing an order.

The relationship between the prevailing price trend and open interest in futures.

Price Open Interest Interpretation
Rising Rising Stock is Strong
Rising
Falling Stock is Weakening
Falling
Rising Stock is Weak
Falling Falling
Market is Strengthening