Forth comming hurdles for NIFTY.

The resistance levels have come down to lower levels. There can be two things.
(Do baaten ho sakti hei)

• As the resistance levels are very low and closer, it can hinder the up move and push the market down.
  
• As the resistance levels are very low and closer, if able to cross it and stay above it convincingly, then these levels can become support levels, and help the market to trend upward.
  

1. 2780 -20 DAY WMA
   
2. 2827 -20 DAY SMA
3. 2824 -20 DAY EMA
4. 2863 -61.8% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241
5. 2866 -20 DAY TMA
6. 3007 -76.4% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241
7. 3110 - upper range of envelop (SMA 20 +/- 10%)
   
8. 3241 -100% FIB RETRACEMENT OF THE RANGE 2253 - 3241

Bullishness will be confirmed by the positive divergence on ADX.
Till the Par.SAR are hovering above, down ward pressure will not vanish.

If all these hurdles are crossed convincingly then only we can see a good intermediate uptrend. Other wise we will be back to square one position and trade in sideways, where as the time passes, the range will be narrower. At this time wait patiently for the break out before taking any long term positional call

Bounce back due???

As mentioned on 19th Nov. 2008 post, US markets made new recent lows. Went below October lows. On Thursday it sold off quite heavily and rapidly. And a technical pull back is expected. The US market futures are too trading positively by this time. This hope gave a good bounce in Asian and European markets. It is to be seen how long does this bounce carry on. Any guess???

One can go long for short term selectively and cautiously. Take advantage of the rallies to get rid of the garbage and keep cash on hand because CASH is KING.

Comparing 27OCT08 Nifty L:2252.75 & 20NOV08 Nifty L:2502.90

INDICATORS	27-Oct-08	20-Nov-08
	Nifty L:2252.75	Nifty L:2502.90
Accumulation/Distribution	-50.9	-54.55
Aroon Oscillator (14)	-100	-71.43
Aroon Up	0	28.57
Down	100	100
Av.Directional Index +DI(14)	5.489	12.31
-DI(14)	51.51	37.03
ADX(14)	62.85	28.12
Avg True Range True range	332.6	132.1
ATR(14)	239.4	171
Bollinger Width (20,2)	1651	751.9
Chaikin Money Flow (21)	-0.2071	-0.0754
Chaikin Oscillator	-9.109	-7.668
Chaikin Volatility (10,10)	13.84	-24.95
Close Location Value	0.6325	-0.2346
CCI (20)	-221.8	-130.1
Detrended Price Oscillator(20)	-860.5	-289.2
Donchian Width (20)	1858	987.8
Ease of Movement EMV	-10754	-2133
EMV EMA (9)	-3521	-663.4
Fast Stochastic %K(5)	27.09	11.53
%D(3)	13.79	6.739
MACD12,26,9 MACD(26,12)	-351.7	-201.5
EXP(9)	-280.2	-203.1
Divergence	-71.41	1.636
Mass Index	26.76	24.68
Momentum(12)	-989.5	-490.7
Money Flow Index 14	23.09	38.42
Negative Vol. Index 20 NVI	55.53	68.65
NVI SMA (20)	62.01	75.1
On Balance Volume	-178.2	-139
Performance	-59.86	-42.18
% Price Oscillator12,26,9 PPO(26,12)	-11.41	-7.188
EMA (9)	-8.488	-6.962
Divergence	-2.921	-0.2264
%Volume Osc.2,26,9 PVO(26,12)	-5.203	-6.853
EMA (9)	-3.333	-4.71
Divergence	-1.871	-1.873
Pos Volume Index20 PVI	72.29	84.22
PVI SMA (20)	86.54	85.7
Price Volume Trend	-10.71	-5.635
Rate of Change (10)	-27.69	-14.75
RSI (14)	20.925	33.17
Slow Stochastic %K(5)	13.79	6.739
%D(3)	12.73	9.564
StochRSI (14)	14.5	38.55
TRIX (12)	0.9869	0.9917
Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28)	37.22	34.42
William’s%R	-81.66	-93.19

As mentioned in earlier posts, US markets may slide further more. This can give further pains to other global markets and Indian market will not be spared off. Though Indian markets may show positive divergence, it will be difficult to rally until the sell off in US stops. Though I expect for US markets to get into oversold territory soon and stage some bear market technical pull backs.

More down side in US markets?

If for now Dow Jones does not trade above 9000 convincingly or RSI does not get into oversold position, it will be very painful situation for the Bulls and Bears will tighten their grip and keep on hammering at every little rise. Due to this, even if Asian markets get into oversold position will not see strong enough pull backs and will continue to trade on side ways.

US stock market out look.

Dowjones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 managed to move up 20day SMA but were not able to sustain above it. Technicals indicates that all of them may retest the lows and may even make new lows in coming days. Which can give more pains to indian market sentiments. For long term positional investor, it will be a wait for some more time. Should not be carried away with sharp pull back bear market rallies. Only try to accumulate near the lows made in Octobers.

I wish you a happy investing.

STOCK MARKET IS SMARTER THAN TRADERS

Expect gap up opening on Monday 10th Nov 08.

Comparing 52wk Highs and Lows of NIFTY

INDICATORS	08JAN08 H:6357.1	27OCT08 L:2252.75
Accumulation/Distribution	300.80	-50.90
Aroon Oscillator (14)	85.71	-100.00
Aroon Up Down	100.00 14.29	0.00 100.00
Av.Directional Index +DI(14) -DI(14) ADX(14)	30.60 8.972 38.19	5.489 51.51 62.85
Avg True Range True range ATR(14)	135.50 115.40	332.60 239.40
Bollinger Width (20,2)	679.30	1651
Chaikin Money Flow (21)	0.1633	-0.2071
Chaikin Oscillator	23.38	-9.109
Chaikin Volatility (10,10)	-28.08	13.84
Close Location Value	-0.0221	0.6325
CCI (20)	143.60	-221.80
Detrended Price Oscillator(20)	234.90	-860.50
Donchian Width (20)	680.40	1858.00
Ease of Movement EMV EMV EMA (9)	254.50 112.30	-10754 -3521
Fast Stochastic %K(5) %D(3)	76.62 85.70	27.09 13.79
MACD12,26,9 MACD(26,12) EXP(9) Divergence	121.40 99..77 21.62	-351.70 -280.20 -71.41
Mass Index	23.69	26.76
Momentum(12)	536.70	-989.50
Money Flow Index 14	80.95	23.09
Negative Vol. Index 20 NVI NVI SMA (20)	115.50 112.30	55.53 62.01
On Balance Volume	236.70	-178.20
Performance	40.92	-59.86
%PriceOscillator12,26,9PPO(26,12) EMA (9) Divergence	1.975 1.644 0.3306	-11.41 -8.488 -2.921
%Volume Osc.2,26,9 PVO(26,12) EMA (9) Divergence	5.506 2.095 3.411	-5.203 -3.333 -1.871
Pos Volume Index20 PVI PVI SMA (20)	122.0 120.8	72.29 86.54
Price Volume Trend	5.952	-10.71
Rate of Change (10)	5.058	-27.69
RSI (14)	69.36	20.925
Slow Stochastic %K(5) %D(3)	85.7 85.25	13.79 12.73
StochRSI (14)	100	14.50
TRIX (12)	1.003	0.9869
Ultimate Oscillator (7,14,28)	66.20	37.22
William’s%R	-10.18	-81.66